Does the Iran war still have the capacity to impact global stock indices?
Please correct me on any of this, as I'm frankly not sure any of my info is right.
What I've heard is that oil traffic through Hormuz is beginning to approach pre-war levels and the are pipelines being built that could also carry some of the 20 million barrels a day that were going through Hormuz pre-war, although those pipelines will still take a long time to complete. So it seems Iran doesn't have the capacity to stop traffic through Hormuz.
The US is out of targets to bomb, except for the refineries, but that seems an unlikely target as it would take a hit on the world economy, which Trump has shown himself averse to doing.
Boots on the ground is something Trump seems completely opposed to.
So, is there even a way the war could still impact stocks in the dramatic way it did at the outbreak of the war or something similar to that?
The only thing I see as potentially being disruptive if Iran or some its proxies decided to harass commercial ships with drones or otherwise, which might lead to insurance companies being unwilling to insure ships or driving the price insurance to untenable heights, which then may lead to a choking off of traffic. Is that a plausible concern?
Is there some potential scenario that I'm overlooking that could have an impact on stock prices?