FIGR into 8/13 earnings — the options are pricing this symmetric and I don't think it is
Figure Technology (FIGR) reports Q2 on August 13. Stock's at $29.61, which sounds like a lot until you notice it's still **62% below its $78 high**. Options are pricing a **±14.7%** move, symmetrically — same odds either direction.
I don't think it's symmetric. The #s are already publicly published on Figure's website here: [https://figure.com/investors/metrics](https://figure.com/investors/metrics)
Here's my ladder:
|Scenario|Prob|Price zone|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Blowout — rev ≥$220M, Connect take ≥2.9%, Q3 guide ≥$5.3B|25%|$33–37|
|Base beat — rev $200–220M, EBITDA $100–115M|40%|$31–34|
|Soft beat / mixed — rev $185–200M or cautious guide|20%|$26–29|
|Miss — rev <$185M, HELOC credit crack, or take-rate reset|10%|$21–24.5|
|Wildcard — secondary offering, YLDS regulatory, macro credit scare|5%|$22–27|
**65% of the weight sits above the current price, 35% below**, and the downside zones are shallower than the upside zones are tall. Weighted EV comes out to **$30.70**.
**Why I think the skew is real:** Figure originates HELOCs natively on-chain and securitizes them the same way — they're not a mortgage originator with a crypto press release, they own the actual rail. The market prices them like a cyclical lender, which is why they're down 62% while the tokenized-credit volumes keep grinding up. The whole bet is whether the take rate holds at 2.9%+ and the Q3 guide starts with a 5.
**Where I'm wrong:** my fee-line mapping might be too generous — if there are fixed components buried in ecosystem fees, revenue lands closer to $185–200M and this is a $27 stock next Friday. Credit deterioration in the HELOC book is the real tail; that collateral sits in zip codes with an insurance-cost problem nobody's marking. And a secondary announced alongside earnings would make being right on fundamentals completely irrelevant.
**The honest part:** this ran 19% in five sessions. I built this model at $28.62 when it implied +7.3%. At $29.61 it implies **+3.7%**. Still skewed, way less free.
Full math: [https://claude.ai/code/artifact/4ba5ec83-b3c9-4c65-b2e9-d50cc4c9261e](https://claude.ai/code/artifact/4ba5ec83-b3c9-4c65-b2e9-d50cc4c9261e)
**Positions:** long 2,405 shares @ $25.79 avg, 25× Jan-2027 calls, 40× Aug-14 calls. Yes I'm talking my book. Yes it's most of my portfolio. Yes I know.
[yoloz](https://preview.redd.it/i9cjwygw6zhh1.png?width=966&format=png&auto=webp&s=83483fb4363858520963deca494c2d23cbb592ef)