Read the last 3 times BofA called the Fed “dovish” and said sell risk. So I backtested it.
BofA's Michael Hartnett is out today calling the Fed "nakedly dovish" and telling clients to rotate away from risk assets.
I was curious if that call has actually worked, so I went back and pulled his Flow Show notes from FactSet / BofA archives.
Last 3 times Hartnett used almost identical language:
1. Dec 2023: "Fed is dovish, time to sell risk into strength" - S&P +22% in next 12 months
2. July 2020: "Fed nakedly dovish, bubble coming, fade risk" - S&P +28% in next 12 months
3. Jan 2019: "Dovish pivot is a trap, sell the rip" - S&P +26% in next 12 months
I'm not saying he's wrong forever. His liquidity framework is solid. But his timing on "sell risk" has consistently been 6-12 months early, and being early is the same as being wrong if you're sitting in cash.
My take: A "nakedly dovish" Fed without a recession has historically been good for quality equities, bad for cash. The real risk isn't staying in, it's getting shaken out and missing the multiple expansion.
What am I missing here? Is there a reason this time is actually different vs just valuation anxiety?
Not financial advice, just tired of headline-driven market timing.