VC analyst here, and Figure AI keep’s landing on my desk. Figure’s Series C put it at \~$39B (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Bezos backing) but that already tops Goldman’s estimate for the *entire* 2035 humanoid market, on basically zero revenue. BMW also went with a rival for its latest pilot, and there’s an open safety whistleblower suit.
Bull: massive TAM, deepest backer list, owns the full stack.
Bear: pricing 2040 into a pre-revenue company; Tesla/China could win on cost.
Is $39B defensible on any real numbers, or pure optionality? (It’s private, so mostly a thought exercise.)