Anyone else think Anthropic’s valuation is going to plummet?

I know this is probably an unpopular take, but I think the market is massively overestimating Anthropic’s moat.

Bloomberg is reporting that DeepSeek is already preparing for an IPO after reportedly raising at around a $71B valuation, and they got there by showing you don’t necessarily need insane compute budgets to build frontier models.

Meanwhile, models are becoming more interchangeable. OpenAI, Google, DeepSeek, Meta, xAI… every few months someone catches up.

So what exactly is Anthropic’s moat?

They don’t own consumer distribution like OpenAI/Microsoft. They don’t own search or Android like Google. They don’t own the hardware like Nvidia. They don’t have Meta’s user base.

If AI models keep becoming commodities, I don’t see how Anthropic justifies one of the highest private valuations in the world. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the secondary market keeps repricing it lower.

Am I missing something, or is this one of the most obvious overvalued AI companies right now?