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High Yield OAS as a stock market bull/bear indicator

A
Jun 17, 2026 · 16:23

Has anyone used High Yield Option adjusted spread as a bull/bear indicator? Its the spread of non-investment grade bonds over treasuries. The idea is the tighter the spread gets, the weaker the credit standards are.


The data is available St. Louis Federal Reserve site.


[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2)