Need feedback/thoughts by industry veterans - who've been in market long

The AI Capex Cycle and the Discipline of Uncertainty - linked in comments

I originally wrote this piece as a way to collect and piece together arguments on both sides of the AI capex debate - many of which I’ve been reading and thinking about over the past few months.

At first, the goal was simply to map everything out for myself so I could develop a more convicted opinion on the topic. But as the notes kept expanding, it turned into something broader: an essay on AI capex, uncertainty, and capital discipline. So I thought I’d write it up properly and share it with others as well.

The question I kept coming back to was not simply, “Is AI capex a bubble?” but rather, “What kind of uncertainty is one actually being paid to bear?”

My answer, at least for now: not every important question belongs in the portfolio. Sometimes the disciplined move is not to force a view at the center of the storm, but to search the periphery for businesses where AI has distorted the narrative more than the economics.

Fair warning: it is a tad long and somewhat complex. I drew on a number of mental models from outside investing and did not explain every one in full, since doing so would have made an already long piece much longer.

I’m sharing it in that spirit; as a work-in-progress framework, not a final answer. I’d especially welcome thoughtful disagreement from people who understand markets well.