Tech is selling off, PPI came in hot. I’m starting to look at prediction markets instead of the stock.

I’m not trying to make a dramatic crash call. I’m just having a hard time reconciling the setup. Tech has been under pressure, inflation data isn’t helping the rate-cut case, and geopolitical risk is still hanging around. Normally that’s the kind of backdrop where I’d expect people to get at least a little more cautious.

Then SpaceX goes public, raises $75B, and still closes its first day around a $2.1T market cap.

I’m not saying SpaceX isn’t a real business. Obviously it is. But the timing feels weird to me: a very expensive IPO, huge retail interest, and a market backdrop that doesn’t exactly scream “risk-on.”

So instead of trying to decide whether SPCX is a good buy right here, I’ve been looking more at SpaceX-related prediction markets. They don’t tell you what the stock is worth, but they do force the question into something more specific: can the valuation hold, does the execution story keep improving, do the launch milestones actually happen?

That feels more useful to me than arguing “great company vs overpriced IPO” in the abstract. Maybe the stock keeps ripping anyway. Maybe it digests. I just find the event-contract side cleaner as a sentiment check than trying to read one day of IPO price action.