OBS: im making this post mostly because I genuinely want to hear other opinions, especially from people who understand markets, tech, or macroeconomics better than I do.
Just to give some context I’m an aerospace engineer and I work with satellites, so I’m definitely not an Elon Musk or SpaceX hater. But I really think people should be careful over the next few months because the AI bubble is close to bursting, and I believe a SpaceX IPO could be the trigger.
If you believe “this time is different,” then maybe this post isn’t for you.
I’m convinced AI is a bubble, and I say that because I work with AI in satellites and I see how insane the market has become. People are getting rich simply by adding “AI” to their company names. Yes, AI will revolutionize the world but we also saw what happened after the dot-com bubble burst.
The question is not if, but when.
I’m not the kind of person who tries to predict the future as I said I’m an aerospace engineer, not a finance expert. But I understand the basics of investments and markets, and I know a lot about the space industry. That’s exactly why I’m so concerned about a potential SpaceX IPO.
The first issue is the idea of data centers in space. As I said, I work with satellites, and even though I personally like the concept of orbital data centers, it is definitely not what people think it will be. When investors realize the limitations, many of them will be deeply disappointed. And when that happens, people may finally start noticing that huge amounts of money are being invested in unrealistic expectations.
And I’m not talking only about SpaceX. I’m also talking about the countless companies that depend entirely on OpenAI or Anthropic. Many of these businesses are burning cash with no sustainable business model. The moment society’s trust in AI starts to crack, everything built on top of that hype could collapse very quickly.
Another very important factor is that SpaceX would almost certainly be included in the Nasdaq-100 index after an IPO. That would force ETFs and institutional investors to buy enormous amounts of SpaceX stock automatically, pushing valuations even higher and creating even more speculative enthusiasm around both AI and tech. In the short term, this could inflate the bubble to absurd levels. But if expectations fail to match reality, the correction could spread across the entire tech sector because so much passive investment money would be exposed to the same narrative.
What scares me the most is not AI itself. AI is real, useful, and transformative. What scares me is the level of speculation around it. We are reaching a point where people are investing based on futuristic promises instead of realistic economics.
History shows that every revolutionary technology creates a bubble before reaching maturity. Railroads, electricity, the internet all of them changed the world, but all of them also experienced massive speculative crashes first.
AI will probably follow the same path.
And if that happens, a SpaceX IPO could become the symbolic peak of the cycle.