Screened 40 large caps most tied to AI capital spending and 73% have trailed the S&P YTD by a median of about 9 points. Power and cooling names diverged the most. Vistra trades at 42x forward now versus 28x a year ago but is only up 4% while the index sits around 13%. Eaton and Vertiv show a similar pattern: multiple expansion running well ahead of actual revenue guidance upgrades.
Semis look better on the surface but strip out NVDA and AVGO and the remaining group (MRVL, INTC, MU, KLAC) is basically flat. What surprises me is that even the cloud hyperscalers, AMZN and GOOG included, have quietly lagged despite being the ones writing the capex checks.
Compiled the screen by pulling filings and returns through MuleRun then verified manually. Five month window on 40 names, so a snapshot, not a thesis.