All of this talk about the U.S dollar being eroded as the world's reserve currency to the point of eventual replacement...realistically what other currency is actually in a position to replace it?
I am a U.S citizen but am a resident of Canada for tax purposes and have been earning in CAD for the better part of the last 15 years. For investing purposes I convert my CAD to USD after my taxes are done and invest (I don't worry too much about timing the actual currency exchange).
Both the dollar and the CAD have lost value since COVID - the USD almost 30% since 2020. The CAD is doing badly but far better than the USD (only a 17% loss in value since 2020).
Quantitative Easing aside, the Macro environment isn't helping the USD either - foreign central banks have severely reduced their exposure to US treasuries, and other unrelated macro events have caused major central banks like Japan to dump U.S bonds en masse, which has exerted extraordinary downward pressure on the U.S Dollar.
Obviously we are in a bit of a bubble of bad vibes with the current administration - so its easy to get into a spiral of doom and pretend like the sun will never shine again - but at the same time, it surely isn't a unreasonable to suggest that the U.S's reputation may be irreparably tarnished, and global actors will surely be doing their best to mitigate their exposure to U.S dollars in future, especially since those dollars are being weaponized to often.
So all this has got me thinking whether I should just convert all my investments to CAD instead.
But the idea of the CAD paying off in the long run is honestly absurd. A nation of 40 million just doesn't have the international clout for long term investment's denominated in its currency to pay off if I eventually want to convert back to USD, however level headed its government may be.
And the idea of global banks flocking to the Euro or the Yuan is almost even more absurd. The Euro is a regulatory mess even in the best of times, and China, for all its economic clout, is still a thinly veiled dictatorship that is not aligned with the West by any measure - I fail to see how or why Central Banks would willingly award the Yuan reserve status.
So we are back where we started - the USD, whilst weakened, remains the reserve currency for the rest of the next 50 years at least.
Am I wrong?