Economic Calendar Monday May 4, 2026 - Key events and what I'm watching (RBA decision, Fed Williams, Factory Orders)

Sharing my macro calendar notes for tomorrow. Here's what I'll be watching:

\*\*RBA Rate Decision - 8:30 PM ET (TOP EVENT)\*\*

Prev: 4.1% | Consensus/Forecast: 4.35%

Markets pricing a 25bps hike. AUD/USD and ASX futures will be very active around this. If they hold instead of hiking, AUD drops fast. The 9:30 PM press conference tone on future hikes matters a lot too.

\*\*Fed Williams Speech - 8:50 AM ET\*\*

NYFed President. If he signals anything about June FOMC (hold/cut), USD and bond markets will react immediately.

\*\*US Factory Orders MoM March - 6:00 AM ET\*\*

Prev: 0% | Consensus: +0.4% | Forecast: +0.5%

First meaningful US data of the week. A beat = USD support, miss = risk-off tone.

\*\*Indonesia GDP YoY Q1 - 8:00 PM ET\*\*

Prev: 5.39% | Consensus: 5.3% | Forecast: 5.6%

EM Asia indicator.

\*\*ECB all day\*\* - Cipollone speech, Annual Report, de Guindos x2, ECOFIN meeting. EUR/USD watch.

\*\*Spain Unemployment April 11 PM\*\* - prev -22.9K, consensus -18.6K

\*\*Turkey Trade Balance April 11 PM\*\* - prev -$11.2B, forecast -$8.0B

Bottom line: light US event risk during regular hours. RBA overnight is the week opener catalyst. Position AUD pairs before 8:30 PM ET.

Not financial advice - sharing for discussion. What are you all watching tomorrow?