When an outcome looks very likely but the return is small, a lot of people simply don’t bother.
At the same time, the lower-probability side can still get action because people like longshots.
That can leave the obvious side a bit cheaper than it should be.
Yesterday’s peace-deal market felt like a good example to me.
Not because it was guaranteed, but because the market seemed to give too much weight to a less likely path.
Curious whether others have noticed the same thing in similar markets. Happy to discuss.