Equities are pushing to new highs on ceasefire optimism, but if you look at the bond market, it’s telling a completely different story. Yields are still elevated, oil is still up big from recent lows, and rate cuts are getting priced out.
That usually doesn’t happen in a “risk is gone” environment.
Feels like equities are pricing the best-case scenario, while bonds are still anchored in inflation and uncertainty.
Curious how you guys are reading this, is this just a lag between markets, or is one of them clearly wrong here?