Is it me, or is the market just...ignoring the realities of the oil supply shock?

I'm seeing articles about how oil futures are much lower than the actual cost of delivered oil (as in oil futures do not reflect the tru price of oil, which is much higher). Everything I read indicates that even if the war ended right now, damage has been done to production and distribution, there is a massive shortfall in oil, and it will take months/years for production to return to pre-war levels.

and that is all before we add in the fact that 1) the war is very much NOT over 2) the straight is very much NOT open, and 3) now the US itself is pledging to disrupt the flow of oil and other goods/commodities thru the straight?

WHY is the market acting like it doesn't know all of the above? there is no way the ongoing oil supply shortage is priced in. there is no way the continuation of the war is priced in.

I'm just looking to understand why a market (that i'm told is always pricing everything in instantaenously) is listening to obvious lies and pricing those in, while ignoring plain facts about the future supply issues oil WILL be facing (and the follow-on effects of increased shipping costs for literally every damn thing).

Peace talks ended with no agreement, Israel is destroying entire villages in Lebanon and declaring that it's going to permanently take and occupy their territory, and now the US is also going to fuck with traffic thru the straight. where is the market's reaction to this news?