The ceasefire has been live for 36 hours and both sides are already arguing about what they agreed to

Been trying to figure out why the market is still partially pricing in a resolution when almost nothing about this ceasefire is actually resolved.

The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Over 400 tankers are still sitting anchored in the Persian Gulf waiting for clearance that hasn't come. Trump announced the deal, saying the waterway would be completely reopened immediately. Iran's position is that ships pass only with IRGC coordination, and after Israel bombed Lebanon yesterday and killed 182 people, the IRGC said traffic stopped entirely. Those two positions aren't a negotiation gap, they're a contradiction.

Then there's the Lebanon situation, which somehow nobody pinned down before announcing the ceasefire. Pakistan says Lebanon was included in the deal they brokered. The US says it wasn't. Vance went on TV and said there were three different versions of the agreement circulating. Three. And Israel launched its largest strike on Lebanese territory since the war started, hours after the ceasefire was announced, while also saying it fully supports the deal.

I pulled up the energy and defense names in my Stoxcraft stock screener after the 16% oil crash yesterday, and the trend signals hadn't broken at all, which felt telling. Oil is already back near $99 today. The market took one session to price in a full resolution and is now quietly walking that back.

Maybe the Islamabad talks this weekend will produce something real. I'm not ruling it out. But right now, this looks less like a ceasefire and more like both sides agreeing to pause long enough to argue about what they paused.