I tracked 7 economic indicators today - here’s where I think the economy is at now and what the market is quietly signaling
Hey everyone, I'm a retail investor and I compiled the most recent economic data into this post. I was curious where the economy is currently and some of the data genuinely surprised me.
**Quick Overview:**
\- Growth is accelerating (BUT latest GDP data up to Oct 2025)
\- Labour market is still relatively tight
\-Inflation is mixed, cooling in some areas, but upside risks are building
\- Liquidity seems to be expanding
|**Indicator**|**Direction**|**Current Value**|**Interpretation / Context**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
||
|**GDP YoY%**|🟢 Upward|**5.42%**|Showing strong acceleration in H2 2025 after a brief dip to 4.59% in April.|
|**Unemployment MoM%**|🔴 Downward|**4.30%**|Reversing a brief spike to 4.4% in Feb 2026; labor market remains tight.|
|**Initial Jobless Claims**|🟢 Upward|**210.00K**|Slight weekly uptick of 5K, but significantly lower than 2025's 260K peak.|
|**CPI YoY%**|🟢 Upward|**2.43%**|Recent re-acceleration after bottoming out at 2.39% in Jan 2026.|
|**PCE YoY%**|🔴 Downward|**2.83%**|Continuing a long-term cooling trend from 7%+ highs; now stabilizing below 3%.|
|**Fed Balance Sheet**|🟢 Upward|**$6.68T**|Recent $0.02T increase suggests a pause or reversal of previous tightening.|
|**M2 Money Supply**|🟢 Upward|**$22.67T**|Consistent expansion through early 2026, rising $0.20T in the last month.|
**GDP & Labour:**
[](https://preview.redd.it/i-tracked-7-economic-indicators-today-heres-where-i-think-v0-tr68wx722dtg1.png?width=556&format=png&auto=webp&s=4368e882f3060153e5d835d7f88da128eb8648ce)
[](https://preview.redd.it/i-tracked-7-economic-indicators-today-heres-where-i-think-v0-wjnipfjn2dtg1.png?width=1189&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0963cf37bb7dae87b84659bc795a1982dfe642d)
As of Oct 2025, GDP has accelerated meaningfully into late 2025. However, this data does not yet reflect recent geopolitical shocks (US Iran war), especially rising oil prices.
The unemployment rate has been increasing gradually for the past 3 years. However, initial jobless claims has been decreasing over the past year, showing signs of improvements and layoffs aren’t broadly picking up (yet).
**Inflation:**
[](https://preview.redd.it/i-tracked-7-economic-indicators-today-heres-where-i-think-v0-ngmts1vl2dtg1.png?width=1184&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0e27602756c88b7ec25d7161b5364bc725d877d)
As of 1 Feb 2026 (before the war started), inflation was at 2.43%. BUT, If elevated oil prices persist, inflation data in upcoming prints could reverse direction.
**Liquidity & monetary policy:**
[](https://preview.redd.it/i-tracked-7-economic-indicators-today-heres-where-i-think-v0-gi7oi1vl2dtg1.png?width=1190&format=png&auto=webp&s=004ba5db5e5bd474266bb25582f3cdeb8b2237f9)
We see a sharp acceleration in liquidity this year, Fed balance sheets expanding again and so is M2 (the overall liquidity in the economy). HOWEVER,
This puts the Fed in a difficult position:
Tighten → control inflation, but worsen debt burden
Ease → support liquidity, but risk reigniting inflation
**My takeaway:**
We are definitely in interesting times but i think we are drawing closer to a stagflation-like setup. Rising energy prices are pushing inflation higher again, which erodes consumer purchasing power while increasing input costs for businesses. That combination puts pressure on both demand and corporate margins at the same time, something markets typically struggle to price in smoothly.
**Data Source:**
This data comes from BEA (GDP). BLS (Unemployment rate), FRED (initial jobless claims, CPI, Fed balance sheet, M2). I use a [free macroeconomic dashboard tool](https://dailyinvestmentbrief.com/macroeconomic-dashboard/) which i found online that connects key economic indicators into one place. The tool is pretty cool, so thank me later :D
I would love to hear you guys opinions about the current situation now. The economic outlook doesnt look too good now, but thats just my perspective. Hope you find the information useful!!!
