Investing in a world without freedom of navigation (tolls setup on Strait of Hormuz and potentially others)

Credits to u/Pretend-Prune6285 for the napkin math that they posted elsewhere:

Assume 2% toll.

20 M bpd. 70$ a barrel.

20*70 =1,400 million $ a day= 1.4B a day

2% is $28M a day

365 * 28 =10,220 M = $10B a year

Iran current defense budget: Also about $10B a year.

And that's just oil. There's also LNG, fertilizer, aluminum, helium and other commodities that come in and out of the region. The Gulf states are heavily reliant on food imports.

Iran could also increase the tolls over time if left uncontested. And there's always the uncertainty of Iran seizing a vessel that failed their "toll audit".

The other implication is other countries may be emboldened to do the same in the future, such as a toll on the Red Sea, or Strait of Malacca which is the world's busiest shipping lane. Which country is going to implement said toll is not the question, it's whether if the US or others would militarily challenge it.

Right now I'm treating the tolls as essentially a tariff on all exports and imports for the countries reliant on the strait.