How big of a deal is the Strait of Hormuz actually? Feels like this could spiral into a global economic problem
I keep seeing coverage of the Middle East escalation, but not enough focus on the Strait of Hormuz itself, which seems like the real pressure point.
A huge portion of global oil supply runs through that route, and it sounds like even partial disruption (not a full blockade) could spike energy prices pretty quickly. That feeds directly into inflation, which then puts central banks in a tough spot if growth starts slowing at the same time.
So you end up with a potential stagflation scenario, which means higher prices and weaker growth, which is kind of worst-case for markets.
This breakdown I came across explains it pretty well from a macro/markets perspective:
https://www.capital.com/analysis/market-mondays-energy-shock-stagflation
Curious what people here think. Is this already priced in, or are markets underestimating how messy this could get if the situation drags on?