AST SpaceMobile $2.8 billion cash, $175 million prepayment from Saudi Arabia, zero profit. What the filing actually says.

Been going through the ASTS 10-K filed March 2 2026. A few things that do not get enough attention.

STC Saudi Telecom, 100 million subscribers committed $175 million as a prepayment before commercial service launched. Telecoms do not do that without conviction.

Vodafone signed a commercial agreement and bought equity. TELUS did the same in March 2026. When your customer also buys your stock the incentives are aligned differently than a normal partnership.

The numbers: FY2025 revenue $70.9M up 641% from 2024 Gross margin 68.7% already before commercial scale Cash $2.8B no near term survival risk Net loss $341.9M building the constellation costs money Q4 revenue $54.3M versus Q3 $14.7M ramp starting

The risks are real. $27B market cap on $70.9M revenue is 145x price to sales. Share count has tripled since 2022. H2 2026 commercial launch with AT&T and Verizon is the moment everything depends on. Miss that window and the valuation reprices hard.

Bear case $8. Base case $65. Current price $89.

Not financial advice. Just what the filing says.

25 pages built from the SEC filing in my profile. Every number sourced. Nothing hidden.