Be honest: do you actually form your own macro view or just adjust slightly from what futures price?

I've started noticing a pattern in myself and I wonder if it's universal.

Fed meeting coming up. I look at CME FedWatch. It says 72% hold. I read some research. I think about the data. I end up at 68%. Or 75%. Always within spitting distance of the market.

Is that forming an independent view? Or is that anchoring with extra steps?

For people who genuinely build a view from scratch before checking the market price: how often does your number diverge meaningfully? And when it does, who ends up being right more often?