Right now at 70 USD, down 55% YTD, -75% 1Y. Same price as july 2018.
Excluding like 40% inflation since then if not more. And USD being lower compared to many currencies (should actually give them more value).
Am I missing why?
This whole bear case is completely relying on massive layoffs for white collar workers that won't get rehired in another role where they still need to use confluence/jira.
I work in tech and we all still use confluence/jira, we didnt reduce seats and we wont because why would we? If we automate workflows it just means people now have time to do other work.
Yes we dont do any agentic AI network setups, only LLM's for automating certain tasks, but how realistic is automating chaotic business logic that isnt written down? AI wont know how to make sense of it.
Where are all these vibe coded agentic apps and companies that just cranking out apps on full auto? It seems that only meta staff engineers are able to work with such a large setup while most workers aren't skilled enough to use/learn to use such a setup. And question is whether the code the 10x developers would make on their own wouldnt be better anyway.
And then you're telling me that these huge slow companies, governments etc that are all using atlassian software, salesforce software etc. would suddenly:
1. fire everyone
2. switch to some agentic created ai slop to save a couple hundred thousand/million? with huge risk things might go wrong and now theres noone in the business anymore?