May not be a popular post but might just save you money..
There are a few things recently that have changed my mind on stock. I wanted to buy it 450 but didn't pull the trigger.. then 420.. now 398 but I think I may have gotten lucky.
I was really interested in getting it because I loved the growth story of Azure.. but..
\#1. AI is supposed to replace white collar workers so SaaS total # of subscriptions will likely go down from existing subscribers.
\#2. In this economy where everything is getting more expensive.. for a family at home wanting home office software, or a student or even a new business.. are you really going to pay MSFT when you can get Google Docs for free? Thought about this long and hard and I couldn't find an alternative better than FREE.
\#3. The EU is making a concerted effort to move away from Microsoft products after the administration put sanctions on them. This isn't reported much here in the US but it's all over the EU.. like they shut down the email of the prosecutor at the Hague.. in effect a kill switch and they are ditching MS products like Zoom and Teams fast.
\#4. Sure its Open AI bet could pay off but that's hardly a sure bet.
\#5. People aren't fond of Xbox subscription price increases or Win 11 or Copilot.
So the only sure bet is Azure and is that really worth of a 30+ forward PE (or well 25 now)?? Not going to complain about CEO or bad decisions as I like the company but I think it may be a value trap and it's multiple has to come down a lot.. maybe 15-20 PE is fair.