$AMZN pullback and probabilistic outlook. Are we bottoming near $200?

Hey everyone. I have been watching $AMZN closely and the recent move looks interesting from a probability and options perspective.

Over the past two weeks, AMZN dropped about 18% from around $243 to $199 and has since been stabilizing near $200.

Based on current implied distributions:

📊 More than 50% probability of closing between $200 and $210
📍 Most likely cluster around $200 to $205

To me, this suggests the market currently sees $200 as a potential short term support zone with limited downside. At the same time, upside seems dependent on AMZN reclaiming $205 and pushing toward $210.

This feels like a cautious equilibrium where traders are unsure whether this is the start of a rebound or continued weakness.

Volume and upcoming catalysts like earnings, macro news, and AWS updates will probably decide the next move.

Just sharing my read. Curious what others think.

Do you think $200 is the bottom?
Is $205 the key resistance level?
Bullish or bearish from here?