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REDDIT

The rare fish theory of investing

J
Feb 16, 2026 · 17:34

In most cases, while investing in any business, you should have a safe, de-risked plan. That’s how you would normally invest.

If someone comes to you and says:

1. There’s a 70% chance the company will fail and you’ll lose your money.

2. I couldn’t deliver before, but I want you to invest because I’m building something big. If this succeeds, you’ll make a lot.

3. I’ve invested all my money, we’re about to fail, and I need your investment. If we succeed, it will revolutionize the industry.

That's a red flag. Right?

But here’s the reality:

1 was Jeff Bezos

2 was Jensen Huang

3 was Elon Musk

They all faced massive risks and still got investors.

So, there comes a time in every investor’s life when they realize that looking at a founder’s conviction is a far better investment than a safe bet.

These are the rare fishes, the founders who tell you the truth but have already invested all their time, energy, and resources due to conviction.