Trump has been talking positively about the negotiations with Iran lately. Could this be an opportunity to find value if a conflict with Iran is not priced in?
Just like in our favorite movie “The Big Short”, this feels like a moment where public sentiment is leaning heavily in one direction.
After analyzing the market reactions following last year’s strikes on Iran, they don’t seem to follow historical trends. Major indexes up immediately after, flight to safety in gold was stagnate until a few months later (largely seeming unaffected), and oil companies also unchanged. The one caveats here is that Exxon is up heavily since the Venezuelan strikes so hard to evaluate.
What are your thoughts? Is there value to be found in the energy sector post conflict with Iran? Is the value outside the US in international securities if the international community sours on the White House?