Let’s run some numbers.
By most accounts, OpenAI is the most used AI services provider with \~60% share in consumer chat (95% free), >70% in coding (including GitHub Copilot), and even higher in enterprise rollouts due to various MS Copilot integrations.
OpenAI said their ARR hit $20B at the end of 2025, up from $6B at the end of 2024. So the entire AI industry might be at $30-35B ARR, give or take, more than tripling in 2025.
Yet, the Big 4 is spending over $1T in 2025 & 2026 on capex.
I don’t know how to square the rapidly growing $30B ARR with the rapidly growing capex. But I’d imagine the AI ARR needs to grow at least 20x from Dec 2025 levels to make all that capex ROI positive?
Also, does anyone know how much of the Big 4’s AI cloud usage is from established companies (with positive cashflow) vs startups like OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, etc that need continuous cash transfusions to keep spending?