I spent the last year backtesting pattern performance across 500+ stocks. Here's what holds up when you look at real data instead of trading books from the 90s.
[](https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/?f=flair_name%3A%22Strategy%22)
I spent the last year backtesting pattern performance across 500+ stocks. Here's what holds up when you look at real data instead of trading books from the 90s.
Patterns with statistical edge:
1. Cup and Handle (62% success rate)
\- Timeframe: 30-90 days
\- Volume requirement: Handle must form on decreasing volume
\- Entry: Break above handle resistance with volume spike
\- Why it works: Actual consolidation after accumulation, not random noise
2. Ascending Triangle (58% success rate)
\- Timeframe: 20-60 days
\- Volume requirement: Must decrease into apex
\- Entry: Breakout above horizontal resistance
\- Why it works: Supply exhaustion is measurable, not subjective
3. Bull Flag (56% success rate)
\- Timeframe: 5-20 days
\- Volume requirement: Pole on high volume, flag on low volume
\- Entry: Break above flag resistance
\- Why it works: Short-term continuation has momentum backing
4. Double Bottom (54% success rate)
\- Timeframe: 30-90 days
\- Volume requirement: Second bottom on lower volume than first
\- Entry: Break above resistance between bottoms
\- Why it works: Support level tested twice = stronger base
5. Inverse Head and Shoulders (53% success rate)
\- Timeframe: 30-120 days
\- Volume requirement: Right shoulder lower volume than left
\- Entry: Neckline break on volume
\- Why it works: Clear reversal structure with volume confirmation
Patterns that don't work (or barely beat a coin flip):
1. Head and Shoulders (48% success rate) - Basically random
2. Wedges (47% success rate) - Too subjective, everyone draws them differently
3. Pennants (49% success rate) - Work in theory, fail in practice due to false breaks
Key finding: Volume confirmation matters more than pattern shape. A cup and handle without proper volume behavior drops to 51% success rate.
Methodology note: Success = 5%+ gain within 30 days of breakout.
Tested on daily charts, 2020-2024 data, excluded penny stocks under $5.
What patterns do you actually trade? Curious if your experience matches the data.