Astrology works because people see patterns, assign meaning, then interpret everything through that lens. Once the label exists, every outcome fits the story.
Technical analysis can function similarly.
Indicators matter because traders collectively watch them. Support holds because enough people expect it to. The reaction is often driven by shared belief, not inherent market physics.
That works - until something external resets the system.
A geopolitical shock, a policy surprise, a liquidity event. Suddenly price moves for reasons no indicator anticipated. The chart didn’t fail. The underlying assumptions did.
Technical analysis isn’t useless. It’s a behavioral map. But it only works inside stable regimes where expectations are self-reinforcing.
The problem starts when traders treat it as objective truth instead of conditional probability.
Astrology becomes dangerous when it’s literal.
Technical analysis becomes dangerous when it’s absolute.
Markets tolerate tools. They punish certainty.