Everyone acts like Visa and Mastercard are untouchable, but I genuinely don’t see how this model lasts forever.
They take like 2%+ on basically every card payment. That’s not just processing, it’s basically a private tax on the whole economy. Merchants hate it, regulators hate it, and consumers only put up with it because you don’t really see the fee directly.
The thing is, the fees are so high that it just creates a massive incentive for alternatives to take over.
Feels like the cracks are already there:
• Regulation is probably coming at some point (debit fees already got capped, credit could be next)
• Instant bank payments / account-to-account stuff is getting way better and cheaper
• Apple/Google wallets are only going to gain more control and push competition
• Even stablecoins or tokenised settlement could start eating into the most overpriced parts, especially cross-border
Amex isn’t really competition either, it’s just another expensive lane for rich customers. The real threat is payments moving off the card rails completely.
I’m not saying Visa/MC disappear overnight, but I really struggle to believe they can keep charging these fees for the next 20 years without it getting squeezed hard.
What do people think? Does the duopoly actually survive intact?