I bought some IBRC during the recent move +35% today and wanted to check the thesis. I'm trying to understand if the latest news reflects a durable inflection point or might I have been better off lighting the cash on fire.
What caught my attention was that the company is no longer just "pipeline someday" speculation. They have a marketed product (ANKTIVA) in bladder cancer, and there have been additional regulatory/clinical updates that are clearly driving interest.
Does the current valuation/price action make sense if you model even a modest commercial ramp for the approved indication(s) or is this a primarily sentiment-driven share price jump getting ahead of itself? I'm looking at this through a few lenses
1) The revenue trajectory and what credible adoption looks like over the next 12-24 months
2) Cash runway and the probability/timing of additional financing
3) How much of the upside case depends on new indications vs the existing one
4) Whether management has a proven track record
If anyone here has done deeper work on this stock or has any insight they would like to share, I am all ears. I'm not married to the position as this is just a small speculative holding for me, but I am comfortable sitting for 1-2 years if there is a real runway for this company to break out.