On the spam midfield that is yahoo finance news feed I noticed yesterday that the majority on analysts see MSTR as a buy or strong buy and one of the price targets was over 700 dollars a share.
To me it seems like a house of cards for several reasons.
1.) If bitcoin drops lower than their cost basis all they have done is spend billions on a bad asset. Like a REIT buying an apartment complex and finding it's all covered in black mold.
2.) Saylor is trying so hard to appear fearless it should be scaring people. If his playbook is to keep issuing new shares and diluting to buy more bitcoin as the price collapses he needs a new playbook.
3.) IMO the potential downward spiral of a company is much faster if the only product the company has is its share price. And if the driver for that share price is a super volatile asset that's on a huge losing streak.
4.) The preferred stock with absurd dividends seems like an overconfident bet vs. a sustainable business strategy. (pun intended)
If the bull case is bitcoin ONLY goes up over the long term I can understand that. But crypto is not the S and P or gold and it's history is short enough I couldn't sleep at night if that was my only reason for holding MSTR.
I'm am legitimately curious what I'm missing. This post is my effort to learn new things. I don't have any money on either side of this stock and honestly both sides scare me.