I have had some winners in this AI melt up and have missed the boat on plenty of other names. When I look at the landscape today, there are two American tech companies and two Chinese tech companies who I think will be the ultimate winners in this AI "race".
For the Chinese companies, I dont own Chinese ADRs because of both the Chinese and US risk, I would only own leap options in both. The geopolitics should be considered in this scenario, but I also think the geopolitics make these 4 companies more likely to shine.
Chinese Stocks
Baidu and Alibaba - both are large Chinese tech companies that I think will benefit. China is using open source and has led to numerous cost efficient breakthroughs. I think China is seeing the reality that AI will ultimately come down to one thing (except in some use cases) - cost. If China produces much cheaper models that are close or beyond the same standards of American closed models, the Chinese models will spread globally.
Plus, these two companies also have the luxury of a political system who will ensure they get the human resources, investment, and most critically, the infrastructure build out that I think American companies will struggle with.
Google and Apple
Google and Apple are my two big american winners because ultimately, both control critical components of the AI process. Google is a fully vertical AI player. It controls its TPUs, DeepMind's models, Google's Cloud, and a huge amount of data that few companies have access to. And this doesnt even count any selling of TPUs to 3rd parties as stand alone products.
Apple is different, it has access to the US consumer. It has huge branding power, a devoted user base, and its own custom A-Series and M-Series. Plus, it isnt in this AI spend rat race that I think will see very little return on investment.
So while Open AI bleeds cash, as estimated $75B over the next few years, I think these four names will benefit.