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REDDIT

Why are the top US banks so overvalued in just a year?

M
Sep 30, 2025 · 08:35

I love investing in the financial sector, but I must have missed something big over the last year and Trump's tariffs are a major negative for the sector, no?

The big banks in the USA have gained like 50-60% in just 1 year.

GS/MS/JPM/HSBC/C/WFC

WFC has even gained 66%! And it's revenue hasn't moved in the last two years!!! (literally sitting at just 82 billion $ from 2023 till now TTM) Why the expected growth if the valuation metrics don't matter?

Looking at their valuation metrics they seem very overvalued. It doesn't appear to be related to an sector/industry hype, because NECB is a regional bank with solid fundamentals, yet it continues to drop without any reason/negative news. Sure I cannot compare a regional bank to worldwide bank like that, but after all we are interested in the value investing when not speculating and I don't see the value in buying 25% profit margin banks with 13-16 PE ratios. How are those banks safer bets compared to NECB with 6 PE ratio, 43% profit margin (double compared to some big banks), higher dividend (around 2 times bigger, as they just 1 month ago released a special dividend not present on the calculations) and many other metrics being better like PB and return on assets.

FCF of NECB is also steadily increasing while those major banks have billions in the negative some years and others it reduces - quite unpredictable.