No one can time or out guess the market in my opinion. So what wrong with just buy the S&P 500 and hold. Live life like you want, no fuss, no worry, NO Stressing, and if you need a cash infusion in retirement, just sell what you need that month.
Just FYI, According to rule #6 of this place you must have at least 250 key strikes, so much for keeping it short and simple.