How will you bet on the market given the looming shortages and price increases?

What do folks think the best strategies will be for profiting from the upcoming supply shortages and price increases?

I don’t think the market has priced this in, and it’s not immediately clear which industries/companies will most feel the pain.

My hypothesis is that there will be shortages on a wide array of goods, considering how much shipping traffic to the US is going down. And of course, retailers will try to recoup as much of tariffs as possible. Small businesses will be hurt the most - not sure if there is a second order effect here that could be interesting (e.g., public companies that generate a lot of revenue providing services to small companies).

This feels a lot like COVID, when it was obvious it was coming but the market didn’t appreciate it. In that case, I bought puts on the S&P (prob an ETF, don’t remember) and did relatively well. But not sure if a broad bet this time is right, because some industries won’t be as affected.

For instance, maybe Amazon or Walmart takes a hit because they can’t source enough goods and prices go up. Is there an interesting ETF focused on retailers that you could bet against? Or maybe there are medium sized retailers already on the ropes who get walloped. What’s your thinking and supporting data/evidence?