Theory: China won’t flinch until the US feels the pain first, but the US pain is lagged.

So yes tariffs between China and the US. They export way more to us, hence the big trade deficit.

So in the early stages of the tariff war, given the big deficit, China gets to feel the effects FIRST. Their factories and companies take the first hit in the war since the US consumers are still absorbing the stocked inventory that’s been shelved in the US pre-tariffs.

Eventually the pre-tariff stock will run out in the US and then boom, price spikes and maybe empty shelves. Not sure what time frame this starts or climaxes though.

Given this, China has no reason to have legit negotiations if the US consumer and population isn’t fully panicking or ticked off at their politicians yet.

China is way better off waiting negotiating while Trump and whomever have an angry and panicking populous behind them.

And I’ve heard China is floating all of their companies hardest hit with free and discount loans. And they’re a dictatorship so they can buy way more time with their people during this tariff war.

I guess my point is, we still have a very long time until this all shakes out. Unless Trump caves early and takes the “loss”. Which is really hard to say, but he seems to be all in…