Is this a short-term blip that plays out over the next 6–12 months? If trump takes the off ramp on negotiations with 0% tariff policies with allies, then this could see a strong recovery.
Or are we staring down a slow grind over the next 2–5 years? Factors include disputes with the EU & Japan, China trade war...
And in the case of stagflation, I’m particularly wondering if the S&P 500 has any realistic shot of getting back to 5800 by 2027 or 2028.