Posts  / #POST-205235
REDDIT

Current Upside vs Downside - Risk - Re-entering when more reasonable policies hit

G
Apr 6, 2025 · 08:35

Dear everyone,

as most people, I am in shock of the policies of this administration and I feel like we are certainly heading into a recession. I am posting to get some feedback and other people's opinion on my thought process. I, of course, don't have a crystal ball but I feel like many people are too relaxed as it somehow all worked out relatively problem free the last few dips/drops and people feel like they get the same company for a better price. I don't think that is the case as the E part of the P/E ratio will not be the same considering the changes in the supply chain and in consumer sentiment. Also, trust has been destroyed.

IF my thoughts are correct, big IF, I know, I think it would be rational to sit this out for a while even if I have to enter at higher prices when we have a reasonable economic policy or a reasonable president. I feel like this is not market timing. Market timing is, of course, difficult. It is just weighing current upside vs downside risk.

I have been very happy with my portfolio, it consists of companies that should all not be affected by tariffs in theory, but in practice, they unfortunately are as they will be sold of with everything else and also their earnings will drop in a general recession. Even V sold off.


The increased buybacks will not be able to make up for all the losses. I am young and would have loved to stay invested for decades and I will again do that when this nonsense is over but I don't feel I need to sit this one out. I would not be hit with taxes as all the gains of two years have been lost. I feel like I have gotten good prices and did not overpay for them but still they willl be sold off. Is this approach reasonable?