Bear market draw down data points on the S&P 500.
I first posted this about 2 months ago, seems worth revisiting. I moved to ~35% cash earlier this year. Likely close to a local bottom with VIX at ~40 until tariff impacts show up in econ data. Personally, plan to move some cash back to equities.
Also, just a guess, but think its likely that Trump will blame the retaliatory tariffs from the world for this econ damage and will use that to justify the largest tax cut program you’ve ever seen.
+ 14.6%, 2022 before first rally (rallied 8.6%)
+ 24.5%, 2022 before second rally
+ 27.5%, 2022 max draw down
+ 35.5%, 2020
+ 10.6%, 2018 before first rally (rallied 7.0%)
+ 20.1%, 2018
+ 14.5%, 2015
+ 20.8%, 2011
+ 10.0%, 08 before first rally (rallied 7.4%)
+ 22.7%, 08 pre lehman
+ 57.1%, 08 post lehman
+ 28.1%, dotcom before first rally (rallied 7.8%)
+ 38.2%, dotcom before second rally
+ 49.7%, dotcom max draw down
+ 20.1%, 1990
+ 19.0%, 1980 before first rally
+ 22.7%, 1980 before second rally
+ 27.3%, 1980 max draw down
+ 18.7%, 1978
+ 16.2%, 1973 before first rally
+ 24.2%, 1973 before second rally
+ 48.0%, 1973 max draw down
+ 9.9%, 1969 before first rally
+ 17.7%, 1969 before second rally
+ 35.4%, 1969 max draw down