Typically, it's impossible to predict when a major market downturn will occur, as it can happen unexpectedly and without warning. However, in this particular case, we knew Liberation Day was approaching on April 2nd. Given that, was it reasonable to anticipate a market crash with absolute certainty—or at least a 70-30 probability? And if so, would it have been a sound strategy to sell and buy back later, even if there was still a 30% chance the market would rise instead?
Related to studies like these: [https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1jlg7j2/missing\_a\_few\_days\_in\_market\_can\_cost\_you/](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1jlg7j2/missing_a_few_days_in_market_can_cost_you/)