How do we even tell if Trump’s tariffs are helping/hurting the US? 1 year out and 4 years out?

I’m so godamn confused by all of this. How do we even tell if this ridiculous play by Trump is helping or hurting the US? I know there are layers to any answer, so let’s just look at economically. Do we determine it by looking at the stock market and my 401k? Do we determine it by the strength of the dollar? Do we determine it by the inflation impact? I’m just so confused on how to judge things. My father in law wants to bet me that they’ll be positive for the US after 1 year, but we can’t agree on how to settle the bet.