US Economy estimated to shrink by 0.5% in Q1. If it shrinks again in Q2, it would officially be the start of a recession.

https://www.axios.com/2025/03/30/stagflation-economy-inflation-growth

The backward-looking data lately has been distinctly stagflationary. Consumer spending in the first two months of 2025 has been soft, coming in 0.6% below its December rate (when adjusted for inflation). A real-time estimate of GDP published by the Atlanta Fed is now pointing to economic activity shrinking at an 0.5% rate in Q1, which ends Monday (after adjusting for gold inflows that distort economic data).

Meanwhile, the inflation measure favored by the Fed has risen at a 4.1% annual rate in the first two months of 2025, the highest in a year.
That all helps explain why, following a steep selloff Friday, the S&P 500 is now 9% below its Feb. 19 high.