My thesis is simple - the US economy has changed.
-Politically, the US has fundamentally changed. In 2028, we will not have an election. This is not good for business confidence and investment since predictability is reduced.
-The amazing gains of the last two years are good enough. I don't expect a three peat. At best it's a year or two of low positive returns, at worst it's another 20% dip.
-The US has traded old economic alliances with Canada, Mexico, and Europe for something else. Disruption of trade patterns is bad for business and creates pain.
-The vice grip that people have predicted since the Fed started printing money in 2008 may be here. We can't return to 3% rates, inflation is slightly higher, and money supply will continue to expand.
Spare me the top comments of: time in the market beats timing the market, XYZ and chill, and no one knows, might go up, might go down.
(Since I know someone is still going to make these comments our savior Buffett sure as seems to be timing to an extent).