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REDDIT

Recession Fears Overblown

The main catalyst for this pullback has supposedly been trade war fears. The Atlanta GdpNow suddenly fell to negative GDP growth prediction, and everyone has lost their minds. The main cause of that change was a sudden trade deficit caused by an influx of gold imported by investors in trade arbitrage with the UK. In other words, it is a huge mis-print that will be corrected in final GDP numbers. There is no other reason to believe our GDP will significantly retract in Q1. It's all smoke and mirrors, in my opinion. Excellent write-up below. It is a normal reset of valuation.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/gdpnow-still-looks-backward

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