BRENT → $81.50 by Jan 7, 2027.

**1. Macro Analysis – Major Controlling Factors** The oil market is currently in a phase of extremely high geopolitical tension but has shown signs of temporary de-escalation, combined with potential long-term supply surplus. **Supply Factors:** * The Strait of Hormuz remains almost paralyzed: Although the US-Iran temporary ceasefire (from April 7–8, 2026, lasting 2 weeks) has been announced, vessel traffic is still below 10% of normal levels. Hundreds of oil tankers remain stuck in the Gulf. Iran continues to maintain …