My perspective on oil prices from now until the end of 2026. Information compiled from multiple reputable news sources

**1. Macro Analysis – Major Controlling Factors**
The oil market is currently in a phase of extremely high geopolitical tension but has shown signs of temporary de-escalation, combined with potential long-term supply surplus.

**Supply Factors:**

* The Strait of Hormuz remains almost paralyzed: Although the US-Iran temporary ceasefire (from April 7–8, 2026, lasting 2 weeks) has been announced, vessel traffic is still below 10% of normal levels. Hundreds of oil tankers remain stuck in the Gulf. Iran continues to maintain tight control and requires ships to follow the territorial waters route. This represents the largest disruption in history (approximately 20% of global oil supply).
* OPEC+ is gradually increasing production: In April 2026, output rose by +206,000 barrels per day (Saudi Arabia +62k, Russia +62k…). This is the initial step in “unwinding” the voluntary cuts implemented since 2023. However, some Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq) are affected by the conflict and cannot ramp up to full capacity.
* Non-OPEC+ producers (US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana) continue to increase output strongly, partially offsetting the disruptions.

**Demand Factors:**

* The IEA has sharply lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to only 640,000 barrels per day (a reduction of 210k from the previous forecast) due to high prices fueling inflation and slowing the global economy.
* China (the world’s largest importer) is stockpiling but is also shifting toward renewables, resulting in slower demand growth.

**Short-term Macro Outcome:** The market remains severely tight due to the Hormuz disruption, pushing prices higher and adding a “geopolitical risk premium” of 10–20 USD per barrel. However, if the ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens (expected within the next few weeks), supply will surge → leading to a clear surplus starting from Q3/2026.

**2. Technical Analysis**
Brent is currently in a strong sideways phase following the impulse rise-and-fall caused by the conflict:

* **Short-term trend:** Bearish corrective move (after hitting the peak of 118–120 USD). Prices have dropped \~20% in just the past 2 weeks.
* **Key support levels:**
* 93.50–95.00 USD (nearest support, tested multiple times).
* 90.00–91.00 USD (strong support, March low).
* **Key resistance levels:**
* 100–102 USD (psychological resistance + short-term MA).
* 109–110 USD (stronger resistance, previous rejection point).
* **Technical indicators:**
* RSI: Oversold in the short term → potential for a technical rebound.
* Moving Averages: Price is trading below the EMA50 on H4/D1 timeframes → short-term downtrend remains dominant.
* Volume: Declining during the recent rebound → buying pressure is still weak.

**Nearest technical scenario:** Prices may retest 100–102 USD within the next 1–2 weeks (if positive news on Hormuz emerges). A breakout above would target 109–110. Conversely, a break below 93.50 would open the door for a deeper decline toward 85–90 USD.

**3. Oil Price Forecast from Now to End of 2026**
**Base case (highest probability \~60–65%):**
Brent prices will gradually decline and stabilize in the 70–85 USD per barrel range by year-end.

* Q2/2026: Still elevated at 90–100 USD (due to Hormuz not fully reopening).
* Q3–Q4/2026: Decline to 75–82 USD as supply recovers strongly (OPEC+ output increase + Hormuz reopening). Reason: Surplus of 1.5–2.0 million barrels per day if the conflict ends. Major banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan) are adjusting forecasts downward accordingly: Goldman maintains Q4 around \~80 USD, while JPM sees \~60 USD average for the full year (but has slightly raised it due to risks).

**Upside scenario (probability 25–30%):**
Brent could remain in the 95–110 USD range through year-end if:

* The ceasefire collapses → prolonged closure of Hormuz.
* OPEC+ unexpectedly reimposes deep cuts.
* China’s demand recovers stronger than expected. Target: 105–115 USD (similar to March levels).

**Downside scenario (probability 10–15%):**
Prices could drop to 60–70 USD if Hormuz reopens quickly + mild global economic recession occurs. This would be a “perfect storm” of surplus supply and weak demand.

**Summary of average year-end 2026 forecast:**

* Brent: **78–85 USD per barrel** (base case).
* WTI: 3–5 USD lower than Brent.