Posts
Do you think ServiceNow can grow its FCFF faster than 11% a year for the next decade?
ServiceNow is down more than 50% in the SaaS selloff, so instead of building a forecast and arguing for a price target, I ran a reverse DCF. I took today’s $107 share price and solved for the FCFF growth rate the market is actually implying. I started with FY2025 free …
$NFLX company’s future and the future of home entertainment.
There is a lot to discuss about this company, but I think they are headed in the correct direction and no one is noticing. Compared to many other industries and stocks in the market, software has been heavily discounted into hardware, but Netflix Business hasn't changed. I'm going to paint …
How loss aversion makes us greedy instead of prudent
Kahneman showed **we feel losses more sharply than equivalent gains**. That should make us cautious investors. But in a bull market, **when everyone around you is getting rich, the loss you fear changes: it's no longer losing your capital, it's missing out on profit.** Losing money starts to feel impossible, …
All of Wall Street has been saying the “consumer AI revolution” is gonna go through Apple for the last three years. When everyone believes the same thing it’s usually good to be a bit cautious.
Was watching CNBC last Friday and I heard at least three different analysts say the “consumer AI revolution” is gonna go through Apple. Josh Brown (Ritholtz Wealth Management):"Other companies that are of comparable size are borrowing money in the bond market and spending over 100% of their cash flow on …
Value investing lesson 1 - Buy Cheap and look for Moats | TTD as an example stock
There are way too many non-value investors that come into this subreddit and they have no idea how we invest: 1. **FOMO investors** (\_\_\_ stock is going to the Moon, i have to buy it now it's gone up 130%) 2. **Speculative investors** (I heard this will go up, but …
Micron Stock and the $26.5 Billion Tell
An opinion piece on Micron and SK Hynix, following on from SK Hynix's recent IPO and recent publications on this subreddit. **The tell in Micron's contracts nobody seems to be reading** SK Hynix's CEO said last week that the memory shortage will run past 2030 — right after raising $26.5B, …
PTEC.L (Playtech): A 5x EBITDA "Picks-and-Shovels" SaaS with a Massive Margin of Safety and a Recent $140M Catalyst
Really good breakdown on this [https://open.substack.com/pub/somethings0ff/p/something-special-issue-3-playtech?r=rc0eo&utm\_medium=ios](https://open.substack.com/pub/somethings0ff/p/something-special-issue-3-playtech?r=rc0eo&utm_medium=ios) **The Setup** Playtech (PTEC.L) is a FTSE 250 company that builds the underlying software for online casinos and sportsbooks (DraftKings, bet365, Hard Rock, etc.). They don’t take the bets; they provide the B2B infrastructure. Despite being a highly profitable SaaS business, it is currently …
Vertex's (VRTX) last transformative acquisition took 11 years to pay off, what about the new Crinetics?
**TL;DR** * **\~98%** of Vertex's product revenue still comes from cystic fibrosis drugs. * That franchise came from a **2001** acquisition. The first drug out of it wasn't approved until **2012**, and it didn't become a giant until **\~2019**. * The newer bets (Diabetes, Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy, Kidney disease) are …
Here's why I think Microsoft represents the best risk - reward dynamic among big tech companies
We all know how Microsoft has been trading at its lowest forward PE ratio levels in several years, we see posts about that on this sub all the time. I think this is a fast narrowing window which will no longer exist when the company releases its Q4 earnings, at …
How do you judge when to exit a good stock
I realized that I have a good niche in identifying good stocks very earlier on. I do make the move & take that risk when others dont. I do get in very early in several of stocks (few examples NVDA at $30, INTL $18, RKLB @ 13, RRCE $1.9 & …