Posts
CSL (ASX: CSL) Follow-Up: The Probability Model Behind My Investment Thesis (Challenges Welcome)
This is the math behind my earlier CSL post and how I sized my position. I run this through a Bayesian split rather than a single-point forecast, and it comes out to a 69% probability of a full recovery case: plasma volumes keep growing, cost-per-litre pressure eases as the network …
Quick survey – building a journal app for VALUE INVESTORS. Is this actually a real need? I'm at a bit of a crossroads.
I'm building an investment journal app for value investors, and I'm about halfway built. It's not finished yet – features are incomplete (viewable but not functional yet). But I'm starting to worry this might just be me building something I think is useful rather than something people actually need. So …
Why Softbank is the ultimate value investment
In my mind, softbank goes back to being the most valuable company in the world again. The whole reason is the nav discount. The market cap is only 250 billion market cap or something Share price is like 5500 Nav is like 10k or something They own 13% of Openai, …
Starbucks spends $400 million a year on software — now it's using AI to build its own and cut out the middleman
The World’s Biggest Sporting Event Came to America—and Ranch Dressing Won - WSJ
*(****TLDR****: Clorox has a hit on its hands. And it is nothing to do with cleaning)* **The World’s Biggest Sporting Event Came to America—and Ranch Dressing Won - WSJ** Hidden Valley Ranch had plans for a huge summer. Then visiting fans turned the uniquely American creation into a World Cup …
Why OpenRouter can Disrupt the Frontier Labs
Summary - Open Router will aggregate all ai models and become a platform, and a example of what applications built on ai look like. [Thoughts here](https://taikhooms.substack.com/p/why-openrouter-can-be-the-next-great?r=2pgab7)
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What are your highest conviction ideas to diversify away from the "AI complex" right now?
I'm having a harder and harder time believing the returns on capital generated in the AI space will be as attractive as the capex figures continue to skyrocket, even for the biggest players. I'm still fairly concentrated into the big 4 hyperscalers (overweight by comparison to the major indices), because …