Posts
Are you a good stock picker?
A few days ago, I posed the question to this group, asking about benchmarking. I think we collectively pretty much all compare our performance against the S&P 500...which is a good benchmark as it's an easy alternative to portfolio construction. But I think ***there's a better way to judge investing …
MTCH: a declining cash cow still priced for a growth asset
I published a bearish valuation thesis on Match Group at approximately $37/share, with an $8–11 target over 24–36 months. The core question is whether Hinge deserves to keep Match Group trading at a substantial premium to distressed dating-app comps while the rest of the portfolio contracts. A few numbers: Match …
What strategies are you using and what returns are you getting?
Curious to learn from people here. I’m new to value investing and still trying to figure out an approach that will work long term. I’ve had some luck taking what may not be considered true value investing. I’ve been looking at companies effectively priced for failure with a recent drawdown …
$AMPX consistently beats estimates three times in a row securing significant contracts
Amprius has consistently exceeded expectations for three quarters in a row **$AMPX - beat, raised, margin expanding, nobody’s watching** **Q2 2026:** Revenue $34.0M, +126% YoY, +19% QoQ Gross margin 9% → 20% → 27% in just three quarters, targeting 30%. Adj EBITDA -$1.0M, guiding to +$4M FY Most importantly - …
Undervalued Regional Bank Stocks
Are there any bank stocks you hold? Would love to hear the thesis behind them. I'll start: \-Capital One (COF): Pretty undervalued here imo, Discover integration is starting to bear fruit, and the whole subprime exposure narrative is overblown imo \-Bar Harbor Bank (BHB): Small regional bank in New England …
What is everyones opinion on DUK?
They are currently trading at 18.8 pe ratio, they have a legal monopoly where the government allows them to take profits at \~10% of their infrastructure. And currently they have headwinds of 103 billion in capex allowing their revenue to grow at a consistent 8% under their current contracts. Energy …
ADBE is down ~50% in two years on AI fears that I don't think hold up
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Valuation: Between Theoretical Purism and Chart-Reading
Hey folks :) I recently wrote an article about my views on valuation – deliberately opinionated. Curious to hear your thoughts / feedback. In short, at one extreme, investors build elaborate models based on academic theories with discount rates calculated to two decimal places and with detailed five-year forecasts. At …
Uber's $10B+ bet on robotaxis and €14.2B of debt to buy Delivery Hero
I've always liked Uber as a company (active user, especially internationally) due to its nature of being an asset-light company that has been printing a lot of cash. But I've always wondered where does it fit in a self-driving world (the future) and why is this boring thing so cheap. …